Thank you @David_Stallcop – we should bestow the Pakira Wikipedia Incarnation award on you! Great to have references to this info.
Should we be putting such educational content in the Industry General channel? What’s your opinion David?
Yes, for sure!
There you go!
Everyone in Europe is talking about US lumber prices and how attractive they are. But as soon as the European construction market starts noticing that there isn’t any new lumber shipments coming from Belarus or Russia and fiber from those regions is depleting quickly from inventories, will prices increase even higher in Europe and sawmills there still want to ship to the US during Q3 and Q4? If US lumber prices are decreasing, what is the attraction to the US market when European market prices are rising rapidly? That is the question that everyone is currently asking behind the scenes but nobody wants to give the answer to. Lumber futures doesn’t even take this into account because we don’t have lumber psychologists reporting to Wall Street and analyzing what European mills are thinking about for the second half of the year. Even if only 50% of the fiber that was coming to the US over the past 2 years suddenly stays in Europe in Q3, will we see a sudden shortage of fiber in the US? Is there enough new SYP production to make up for the potential shortage in Euro fiber? Will that extra SYP fiber make it into non traditional SYP lumber markets? What will happen to lumber prices in July/August when any potential major reduction in shipments from Europe will truly kick in and we see less supply at the ports in the US? For more information on trends in the global wood products markets join Pakira. Pakira is free to join for those in the building materials and wood products industry, just follow this link LinkedIn.
#construction #europe #lumber #stallcopgroup #pakira #lumbershortage #eurolumber #trends2022
@David_Stallcop What do you think of @Matt_Layman’s post The Great Lumber Shuffle?
Will Canada have reduced exports to china, consequently increased exports to the United States, and will this offset the reduction of euro wood supply to the US?
Think about OSB. Plenty to to around, just mis-distributed; too heavy to Home Centers.
Same with lumber. Plenty to go around; folks just have to shop in different places.
Yes, less Canadian to China, more to U.S., requiring less Euro which they can keep for themselves. China can “help” Russia on the sly, taking up slack left from Euro.
Although it really makes no difference. Consumer Confidence falling like the Hindenburg. Builders living on backlog, not new sales. We are near the end of the March Meltdown. Next is April Anxiety. Then the May Massacre.
Major housing correction in 2nd half. Lumber market will foretell it.