We are excited to announce that this week marks the release of our joint China Outlook Report that addresses key softwood and hardwood topics, issues and outlooks. It includes novel analysis not previously conducted and is a timely must-have report.
This new report, China Forest, Log & Lumber Report: Supply, Demand & Prices to 2030/2035, shows China will again become a significant growth market for softwoods – especially for lumber. The Chinese hardwood pulp sector will also see substantial growth with important fibre sourcing implications and opportunities.
Some key trends and questions answered in the report are as follows:
Softwoods :
- China’s softwood lumber demand peaked in 2019, a level unlikely to be reached for a very long time. Demand will increase slowly, but only by about 20% from 2023 to 2035.
- Lumber imports will surge over the forecast period by 50-75% to offset supply limited declining log imports!
- Log imports peaked in 2021 and are forecast to decline by more than 50% from the 2021 level by 2035.
- While 2024 will likely be lacklustre, recovering demand, low inventories and tight log supplies mean that prices will rise!
Hardwoods:
- China’s hardwood eucalyptus plantation estate has expanded exponentially and based on size is now on par with Brazil. This expansion allows for more domestic supply than many would expect.
- How competitive is the eucalyptus industry? Our analysis shows that there are opportunities now for China to re-align and optimise its hardwood value chain.
- The hardwood pulp industry is forecast to increase consumption from ~20 Mt in 2023 to ~31 Mt by 2035. To what extent can this incremental demand be met with domestic versus imported resources?