Lumber Below

Lumber, Boards, Timbers
1

Lumber

https://www.limaohio.com/news/business/477190/lumber-is-down-from-the-stratosphere

Welcome to the “Mad Mike Lumber Report 9/21/21”

Nov Lumber futures continue to maintain a hefty premium over cash lumber… Nothing would surprise me but I think that futures will pull back to meet cash instead of cash rising to meet futures. Welcome to the wacky world of lumber

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Thanks @Michael_Haas ! What’s the differential between futures and cash percentage-wise? Is it an anomaly of our times or have we seen such occurrences before?

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How do you tracking cash prices?

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So is there a strategy to be played in today’s volatile market, or do you just ride it out?

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Bold statement @Michael_Haas
Nothing would surprise me either… but as a betting man … wanna put a quarter on it?

  • WSPF #2&btr 2x4 16’
  • FOB Portland Oregon
  • November 1st - $615 print
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Just when we all think that futures “has” to come back a little (for it’s $100 over cash)…
they’re up $20/m this am. With the supply chain being FUBAR, and Covid still threatening employment … tough to hedge too far on either side. I believe there’s still enough Higher priced lumber from July/August that many traders are “hoping” futures (and cash) continue strong.

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We are in complete agreement, It’s hard to wrap my head around what will happen to futures / how to hedge given

  1. massive premiums over cash
  2. cash rising

@Jim_Schumacher how do we make sense of all this?

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