Lumber prices are expected to increase sharply as early as the second quarter of 2026 due to continued United States trade restrictions and tariff policies, based on analysis by Russ Taylor, President of Russ Taylor Global.
Taylor forecasts that the current system of countervailing and anti-dumping duties imposed by the United States will restrict Canadian exports, reducing available lumber supply in the US market. These measures are expected to raise domestic lumber prices for American consumers, home builders, and contractors.
According to Taylor, the combination of excessive tariffs and persistent duties under US Trade Law will continue to penalize Canadian producers and discourage imports. This protectionist strategy is designed to increase profits for US timberland and lumber producers at the expense of buyers who face higher material costs.
The analyst explains that the United States aims to reduce Canada’s share of the US lumber market from about 23% to single digits. Achieving this objective would require a major expansion of domestic lumber production and restrictions on imports from Canada, Europe, and the Southern Hemisphere. Such production growth is unlikely in the near term. When US demand rises, imports will still be required to fill the supply gap, which will cause significant price spikes by Q2 2026.
The upcoming price volatility is attributed to the combined effects of restrictive duties, import limitations, and inadequate domestic capacity. As a result, market instability is expected to persist, with high prices ultimately passed on to US consumers and builders.
Taylor concludes that fair and transparent trade policies are essential to stabilize lumber markets on both sides of the border. He warns that continued protectionism will sustain price volatility and increase costs for the construction sector.