Lumber Prices Year-End 2021: A Brand-New Market Balance

As explained last week, the North America construction framing dimension softwood lumber market has changed forever. Following the massive flooding and infrastructure damage to transportation routes in southern British Columbia, which will take many months to repair, for the week ending November 26, 2021 industry players had not yet been able to determine what impact this supply impediment would have on lumber prices.

However, it was known that the supply-demand balance is now decidedly in the favour of producers. This is because most players were not stocking inventory, generally in the hopes that prices would go down. Now that there are huge logistical challenges in moving wood out of the important fibre basket in BC, those who still need lumber before the end of this year are scrambling to find whatever material they can.

This is, of course, sending prices higher. Normally at this time of year players have ordered — and indeed received — any lumber building materials they need for the end of the year and prices are starting to go down. That was not the case last year, and does not seem to be the case this year. Please see graphs attached for more details.

At time of writing the two Canadian railways were back to running through southern BC, and the Port of Vancouver was re-opened. However there is a significant backlog of goods waiting to move, which would take quite a while to work through at the best of times, not to mention right at the busy Holiday season.

Boosting higher compared to the previous week, and rising to match the same week one year ago, for the week of November 26, 2021 the price of WSPF 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$645 mfbm. This is up by +$15, or +2%, from the previous week when it was $630, said weekly forest industry lumber market price guide Madison’s Lumber Reporter

FULL STORY (and graphs):

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