Posted on behalf of:
Atlantic Forest Products
Bart Charles
2-14 2022
Volume 1
503-341-0135
503-868-5729
Stats/Technical Data of Interest
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Daily Lumber Futures: March 2022
- Bollinger Bands 901/1109.9/1318.2
- Moving Averages: 9d-1106 20d-1110 40d 1120 50 d 1098 100d 885 200d 870
- Stochastic: 78.59
- Recent Low: 900.9 2-2
- Yearly Low: 900.9
- Yearly High: 1311.5 1-19
- Gaps: 6 downside gaps **
- Open Interest: 2522
- Managed Money: Long 366 Short 78
- Commercials: Long 786 Short 987
- CAD: .7848
- Euro: 1.1343
- R/L 2x4 front page - WSPF 1275
- 2021 Average: WSPF 870 2022: $1200
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Average Futures Basis:
- 2021 -40
- 2020 -25.5
- 2019 +13
- 2018 ($-19)
- 2017 (-$15)
- 2016 (-$6)
Commentary
Regurgitating what others have reported and what we are living. Transportation continues to be a frustrating nightmare. It is covering all aspects of our industry. Car supply, route disruptions (see natural disaster in BC) congestion at various destinations (clogged reloads) , lack of labor (on all fronts) , port congestion , lack of equipment the list goes on and on .
These problems have just added fuel to an underbought industry heading into Q1.
Q2 will be interesting as at some point I have to believe transportation will loosen up.
As to what when where I wish I knew but short term we have to keep wood on order. We will become double bought but right now having product is king compared to not.
I don’t see $500 mill in the cards real soon but $1200 + mill long term is most likely not substantiable.
Short term March is your best buy for canned 2x4’s and we can help.
Futures:
Volatility will continue to be king until changes that are needed to our contract are implemented. When they (CME) eventually do implement some changes (to hopefully have more industry participation) there will be opportunity for those who embrace the change. See me for Details
This is now day 20 of 21 that we have touched limit. I like the analogy it’s like being called up to hit against Nolan Ryan. You know 98-mile fastball is coming you just don’t know if its down and away, over the plate, or at your head. In other words, without a plan and quick reaction you better stay in the dugout.
We are here to help mitigate risk and strategize for the future.
I welcome your thoughts -BC