Russia's lumber production decreased by 18.3% in October

In the first ten months of 2022, Russia’s lumber production totalled to 24.7 million m3, or 8.5% less than in the same period last year. In October, lumber production decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, according to the Federal Service for State Statistics (Rosstat).

In January-October 2022, Russia’s plywood production totalled 2.785 million m3, or 26.7% less than last year. In October, plywood production decreased by 37% year-on-year.

Production of windows and wooden frames decreased by 3.8% to 371 thousand m2; doors, wooden frames and thresholds production dropped 3.7% to 16.9 million m2.

Fibreboard production decreased by 7.5% to 564 million m2; and chipboard production fell by 9.9% to 8.6 million m3.

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“When we thought we had reached the bottom, someone knocked from below…”

I want to be wrong, but it seems to me that this is only the beginning of the decreasing.

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@David_Bagdy do you agree w/ @Andrey_Tikhomirov ? Is this what you’ve been seeing from the Russia/Belorus side?

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And also @Tigran_Makarian do you have a sense of whether this is yet the bottom for Russian forest products?

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I agree with Andrey Tikhomirov. The production decrease in Russia is the direct result of a global decline in demand. Conditions are extremely difficult for sawmills in northwest Russia that produce for the USA market. European production is stiff competition for the Russian mills. With global demand down the USA seems to be the market of choice. Best said the market is like “hungry dogs on a meat wagon”. Wood products from Russia also have to contend with the 35% tariff, assuming it is not being circumvented. Look for the dog fight to continue. Opportunities do exist if you think outside the box.

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