S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX REBOUND CONTINUED IN MARCH
NEW YORK, MAY 30, 2023: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2023 show a continuing recovery in housing prices, as all 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp- corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 0.7% annual gain in March, down from 2.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -0.8%, down from 0.5% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.1% year-over-year loss, down from a 0.4% gain in the previous month.
Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. Miami led the way once again with a 7.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 4.8% increase, and Charlotte replacing Atlanta in third with a 4.7% increase. There are 19 of 20 cities reporting lower prices in the year ending March 2023 versus the year ending February 2023, with only Chicago showing an increase at 0.4%.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.3% month-over-month increase in March, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, while the 10-City Composite gained 0.6% and 20-City Composites posted an increase of 0.5%.
ANALYSIS
“The modest increases in home prices we saw a month ago accelerated in March 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite rose by 1.3% in March, and now stands only 3.6% below its June 2022 peak. Our 10- and 20-City Composites performed similarly, with March gains of 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. On a trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is only 0.7% above its level in March 2022, with the 10- and 20-City Composites modestly negative on a year-over-year basis.
“The acceleration we observed nationally was also apparent at a more granular level. Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose in all 20 cities in March (versus in 12 in February), and in all 20 price gains accelerated between February and March. Seasonally adjusted data showed 15 cities with rising prices in March (versus 11 in February), with acceleration in 14 cities.
“One of the most interesting aspects of our report continues to lie in its stark regional differences. Miami’s 7.7% year-over-year gain made it the best-performing city for the eighth consecutive month. Tampa (+4.8%) continued in second place, narrowly ahead of bronze medalist Charlotte (+4.7%). The farther west we look, the weaker prices are, with Seattle (-12.4%) now leading San Francisco (-11.2%) at the bottom of the league table. It’s unsurprising that the Southeast (+5.4%) remains the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.2%) remains the weakest.
“Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery make, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end. That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months.”