Sawmill capacity closures continue to reshape the US lumber supply landscape

The lumber industry has faced no shortage of volatility. It transitioned from boom to bust in 2018 to 2019 and developed into a bigger boom to bust in 2020 to 2022. The latest Random Lengths Weekly pricing correction shows the Framing Lumber Composite Price (FLCP) plummet from 2022’s highs of over $1,334 per thousand board feet (mbf) to $373 per mbf in the first week of January. Prices have subsequently oscillated around $400 per mbf for most of 2023, a level market participants in a pre-pandemic environment would be more familiar with.

The price correction was triggered by a combination of demand falling off after peaking in the spring of 2021 and supply-side disruptions from the pandemic dissipating as mill headcounts normalized and transportation/logistics shortages ceased.


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