Shoe’s Lumber Report – 10/29/21 | Shoe's Lumber Report


“The canary in the coal mine could be heard this week as caution and softness were experienced for the first time in more than two months. 2x4x9′ PET KDHF Solid Sawn Studs saw their font color change, similarly to the autumn leaves, as pricing retreated by more than ¾% by Friday**”

If 2x4x9′ PET KDHF Solid Sawn Studs are the canary in the coal mine and the market begins to soften and turn. Do you think we will see this weakness in one or a few items first, or do you see the whole market turning?


Hi @Jim_Schumacher all the prices on your red 2021 line ini the graphs are up, except for OSB – which remained flat. Do you have a sense of what OSB is an anomaly?


@Madison_s_Lumber_Rep OSB follows housing, not lumber correct? Given early weakness in lumber and housing, do you think we will see any rise in OSB prices in the near term?


OSB has a mind of its own and does not follow lumber always. In the short term, I think OSB may see a retraction due to the some excess stock becoming available in the secondary wholesale market. This will be short lived (2-4 weeks max) before the 2022 contracts start to come into play and gobble up mills future production. Just my 2-cents.


I expect to see softness across the board in the next few weeks, until the November contract is off the board (maybe a week longer). I don’t expect a big drop, just a refund of some of the recent gains.


Why’s that? Are you saying the cash market is being driven by the Nov futures contract or that people will just be following it? or are you just talking about that timing as a general marker?