Fascinating analysis here! We see 16 charts for various wood products, of which 15 are pointing up. The only outlier is plywood. What is the typical relationship between plywood and the rest of the market?
You also point out that the futures premium over cash has eroded from 29.1% last week to 17.28% premium this week. Do you have any ideas on how this relationship might play out in the coming weeks/months?
Very interesting. Why are Plywood and OSB the only two that are in the historical range? Also very appropriate that the graphs utilize a log scale.
“log” scale very funny
Yes… Typically for the shorter month (Nov in this case) will mean there will be a bit more upward push by cash to rise to the convergence level. This is exactly what we are seeing.
With the SWLA Tarrif meeting between the US and Canada coming up in late November, I expect thing’s to slowly rise in the short term, unless an unexpected event occurs. I am bullish in the near term, as futures paint that exact picture.
Each item I track has a unique correlation to futures based off of historical trading levels, as I do not expect another run this year or next l, like we experienced in 2020 - 2021.
is that good?!
The run we experienced in 2020 - 2021 was certainly an outlier. That said, how do you see the current environment of tightening supply and strengthening demand playing out?