The US economy expanded an annualized 2.7% on quarter in Q4 2022, slightly below 2.9% in the advance estimate. Consumer spending rose 1.4%, the least since Q1 2022 and below 2.1% in the advance estimate. Spending on goods went down 0.5%, revised from an initial estimate of a 1.1% rise, mainly dragged down by a fall in jewelry. Spending on services went up 2.4%, also below 2.6% in the advance estimate. The contribution from net trade was revised lower (0.46 pp vs 0.56 pp), as exports fell more (-1.6% vs -1.3%) and imports declined less (-4.2% vs -4.6%). Meanwhile, private inventories added 1.47 to the growth, slightly more than an initial 1.46 pp, led by petroleum, coal products and utilities. Also, fixed investment declined less (-4.6% vs -6.7%), led by equipment (-3.2% vs -3.7%) and an increase in intellectual property products (7.4%). Residential investment continued to contract although at a slightly smaller pace (-25.9% vs -26.7%). Considering full 2022, the GDP expanded 2.1%.
Hi , In my view the dot plot method of tracking inflation is outdated . Not sure if it is a simple one month linear plot anymore in the next gen era . Just this morning lumber futures where up 18 bucks and by noon it was ticking down 7 bucks of off that. The way I see it inflation is here to stay on the up-side due to global conflicts that should not be happening very unfortunate for the world as a whole.
Also do not see the method of raising the benchmark rate will help it could be very risky. It’s tough one to deal with . I have been watching the bond market , it’s ripe for opportunity picking this might not be a good thing. Just an overview from my studies in a really hard forest economics class . We did alot of differential equations pushing the elasticity of a given known ie; how much can the know be moved to achieve the desired result. It’s not a new concept , maybe the view of which inflation is plotted is outdated. All good just an observation.
