As expected, the Census Department’s New Residential Construction report for January was another disappointment.
Building Permits
- Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,339,000.
- This is 0.1 percent above the revised December rate of 1,337,000, but is 27.3 percent below the January 2022 rate of 1,841,000.
- Single‐family authorizations in January were at a rate of 718,000; this is 1.8 percent below the revised December figure of 731,000.
- Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 563,000 in January.
Housing Starts
- Privately‐owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,309,000.
- This is 4.5 percent (±15.9 percent) below the revised December estimate of 1,371,000 and is 21.4 percent (±10.6 percent) below the January 2022 rate of 1,666,000.
- Single‐family housing starts in January were at a rate of 841,000; this is 4.3 percent (±16.4 percent) below the revised December figure of 879,000.
- The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 457,000.
Housing Completions
- Privately‐owned housing completions in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,406,000.
- This is 1.0 percent (±9.8 percent) above the revised December estimate of 1,392,000 and is 12.8 percent (±13.0 percent) above the January 2022 rate of 1,247,000.
- Single‐family housing completions in January were at a rate of 1,040,000; this is 4.4 percent (±10.4 percent) above the revised December rate of 996,000.
- The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000.
Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family
Single vs multi-family starts, yellow highlights current, red a year ago, green pre-covid pandemic
Chart Notes
- A year ago, seasonally-adjusted annualized single-family starts were 1.157 million.
- Pre-pandemic they were 1.038 million.
- In January of 2023 they were 841,000.
Unadjusted Numbers
Unadjusted Starts, Permits, Completions, Chart by Mish
Unadjusted Notes
- On an unadjusted basis vs a year ago, permits fell from 132,000 to 101,000.
- On an unadjusted basis vs a year ago, starts fell from 121,000 to 96,000.
- On an unadjusted basis vs a year ago, completions rose from 87,000 to 96,000.
There will be huge price pressures and discounts on any builder-owned units.
Expect More Negative Revisions
https://mishtalk.com/economics/housing-starts-drop-another-4-5-percent-to-a-new-post-covid-low